Casey Capshaw

I recently made a friendly wager with a friend of mine: Facebook will not be around in two years. My friend joins the more mainstream viewpoint that Facebook is a massively valuable web application and i respectfully disagree.

Let me explain my case.

First, technology is increasing exponentially. Ray Kurzweil may be the most famous proponent of this concept, and nowhere is it more apparent than the world of online applications. The world is still figuring out what the internet is good for, and Facebook is simply the shining star of the current leading edge.

Second, internet users(especially young ones, which make up the majority of Facebook users) are notoriously fickle. There is a fine line walked between popularity and passe, MySpace has crossed it, Facebook is getting precariously close to it.

Third, The Google. Google already handles a huge portion of ‘social’ functions on the web for millions of users. Email, scheduling and calendering, document collaboration are all done exceptionally well by Google, and they are working on social networking.

Now what do we really get out of Facebook? “The Wall” ? i guess, but i prefer Twitter. Connections? yeah, thats good, but I don’t need it every day. PhotoShare? They have done it better than most, but its no category killer.

The real downfall of Facebook, and where Google will bring the fatal blow, is that FaceBook is limited to the internet. I have to be online to get any value from it. This is not where I want my social mastery to take place. It’s a great little online community, but the sun is shining. There is a world out there.

Google Wins

Google is developing the gPhone. A handheld device to compete with the iPhone and give seamless access to all Google functions from a mobile device. As Google develops the gPhone, they will be moving more aggressively into social networking. Give the gPhone GPS capabilities and suddenly my online social network is a mobile enabled Geo-Social Network!
“Your friend Doug is in your town.”
“Your friend Mary is leaving this country.”
“There are 10 single women in this vicinity”

Geo-Social Networking via integrated mobile device will be the Facebook killer. I give it less than 2 years. Passive social awareness, (The Wall, Twitter) is great, but i don’t want to bother with input most of the time. My GPS gPhone will handle the spacial location aspects of this for me.

Official Prediction:
Facebook gone by october 2009.

What is something that everybody needs, but nobody is doing remarkably?

That was what Jason and I were asking ourselves on fine summer day in Boulder this year when we both found ourselves frictionally unemployed at the same time.

That is the day SexyTie.com was born.

The most ubiquitous thing we could think of were how-to video’s. These are relatively easy to make, capitalize on unique expertise of the creators and provide serious value to the viewers. Its the “oral tradition” for the youTube generation, our method of passing down valuable information.

A search for “how to tie a tie” in Google yields 92 million results. This is something every male in America should probly know how to do so with that, you have sufficient span. 92 million is a helluva lot of competition though, how can we do it better?

SexyTie.com | How To Tie A Tie | The Full Windsor Knot. – Watch more amazing videos here

The market for necktie instructional videos consists of young men. What do young men think about pretty much every moment except when they are trying to figure out how to tie their ties? why women of course.

This is our purple cow. Let us know how you like it.

Strategy #1 Span

Think of something absolutely everybody needs but nobody is doing well.

Do it well.

Monetize it.

Strategy #2 Niche

Think of something a only few people need but nobody is doing at all.

Do it well.

Monetize it.

What is the common factor. Doing good work gets noticed. A little creativity and you can be the best option in a sea of choice. Make it easy to share and people will share it.